Election years are tricky for any industry, and this one has been no different for business aviation. While general market dynamics remained steady and stable, questions about what to expect post-election were pressing. In the weeks leading up to Election Day, uncertainty began to stall buyers and sellers from making decisions. But now, with the long-awaited results finally in, everyone’s wondering if this will unlock a surge in year-end activity—and, if so, to what degree.

The fourth quarter is typically a robust time for aircraft sales, often culminating in December’s “hockey stick” effect. Since 2019, December sales totals have averaged 132% higher than the other months of the year. However, election years tend to show slower-than-average results leading up to Election Day, followed by an above-average uptick that brings the annual results back into alignment. And true to form, we’re already seeing this post-election spike take shape. 

Since last Tuesday, the average daily inquiries received by jetAVIVA increased by 39%. If this momentum continues, the total inbound activity for November will likely reflect a 42% increase over the average monthly inbounds recorded from July through October. This top-of-funnel activity is a very positive indicator of sales to come. And this isn’t just top-of-funnel buzz—our end-of-funnel activity is ramping up too. Aircraft under purchase agreements have risen by nearly 70% in the last week alone, signaling that buyers are ready to act. It seems whatever prospective buyers were holding out for to make a final decision, they’ve now found it. 

This isn’t an isolated trend. According to Goldman Sachs, political clarity typically drives strong year-end returns in election years. As their Chief US Equity Strategist David Kostin noted, the S&P 500 has historically seen a median 4% return from Election Day through year-end.  This year looks to exceed those expectations; as of last Friday, stocks capped a record-breaking election week with the Dow climbing above 44,000, the S&P 500 breaking past 6,000, and the Nasdaq hitting an all-time high. Adding to the momentum, the Federal Reserve reduced interest rates by another 0.25 basis points, and has hinted at another cut in December.

So what’s the word on the ground? With one of the largest and most experienced sales teams in the industry, we make an effort to keep a close pulse on market sentiment beyond the numbers. During our latest team call, reports were unanimous: the mood is overwhelmingly positive, with a tangible sense of relief that the election is over. The phones are consistently ringing with offers coming in, deals are going under contract, and, as one team member put it, it feels like the year is “back on track.” Optimism is clearly on the rise, and confidence among both buyers and sellers is at its highest point in months.

There are still a few lingering misperceptions in the market, however. A common one is the notion of a soft or softening market where, if buyers hold out long enough, a year-end deal might present itself. We hate to burst that bubble, but increasing demand, lower interest rates, and strong tax motivations are keeping prices steady, and for those considering selling, this is a prime moment to get top dollar. 

Will this be a typical year-end rush or one for the record books? Only time will tell. But as we head into the final stretch, now’s the time to act. If you’re ready to buy or sell, give us a call today. We’ll be here to help you navigate what’s shaping up to be an exciting finish to 2024.