The Super-Midsize Market Right Now: What the Data Isn’t Showing You

The numbers you’re reading online are wrong.

Not because someone falsified them. Not because the platforms are broken. But because the market has moved, and the data hasn’t caught up.

If you’re making a buying or selling decision based on what’s publicly listed today, you’re not looking at the market. You’re looking at its shadow.

Let me show you what’s actually happening.

I Was Just in the Room

A few weeks ago, I attended the IADA Spring Meeting. For those unfamiliar, IADA — the International Aircraft Dealers Association — represents the ONLY credentialed, most accountable dealers and brokers in business aviation. When this group gathers, the conversations are different. Less posturing. More signal.

One of the presentations that defined the week came from Connor Lokar, Senior Forecaster & Keynote Manager at ITR Economics. If you don’t know ITR, you should. They are one of the most respected macroeconomic forecasting firms in the country; known for delivering practical economic intelligence with the kind of clarity that actually changes how executives make decisions.

Connor’s read: we are approaching, or may already be at, a post-COVID inflection point. A moment where the number of qualified buyers begins to outpace the supply of quality aircraft. The good aircraft are being absorbed. Quietly. Quickly. Often before most of the market even knows they exist.

That’s not a prediction. That’s a description of what’s already underway.

The Cycle Nobody Wants to Talk About

Business aviation doesn’t move in a straight line. It never has.

Connor Lokar walked through the historical pattern at the IADA Spring Meeting, and if you’ve been in this industry long enough, you’ve experienced it firsthand. Roughly every 8 to 10 years, the market experiences a meaningful correction. Not a rumor. Not a theory. A pattern with a track record.

Think about it.

The early 2000s tech bubble collapse pulled corporate flight departments and fractional programs into a painful contraction. Companies that had been flying their executives coast to coast suddenly couldn’t justify the optics, or the expense. Aircraft that were spoken for went back to market. Values softened. The phones went quiet.

Then came 2008 and 2009. The financial crisis didn’t just slow business aviation — it nearly stopped it. The image of bank executives stepping off private jets on their way to congressional hearings became a symbol, within the news, of everything wrong with corporate excess. Flight departments were shuttered. Orders were cancelled. The preowned market was flooded. If you were selling in 2009, you remember exactly what that felt like.

Then COVID. A different kind of disruption entirely. One that actually accelerated demand for private aviation as commercial travel collapsed. The market following COVID, as folks returned to travel, roared. New entrants flooded in. Values climbed to levels that surprised even the optimists. And the inventory that existed got absorbed faster than anyone anticipated.

Each of those cycles had a setup. Each had a signal. And in most cases, the people who acted before the headline were the ones who came out ahead.

Connor’s read on where we sit today: if the 8 to 10 year pattern holds, and it has held through dot-com crashes, financial crises, and global pandemics, the next meaningful correction is aimed somewhere around 2030.

That tells you something important about right now.

We are in the favorable window. Not at peak. But trending there. And the buyers waiting for more inventory, waiting for prices to soften, waiting for the perfect moment — they are waiting for a market that has already moved past them.

The window doesn’t announce itself when it closes.

The Desirability Threshold — And Why It Matters

Here’s the nuance that most market commentary skips entirely.

We have not yet reached the point where significantly less desirable aircraft are moving. The high-time airframes. The deferred maintenance. The outdated avionics. That inventory is still sitting.

Demand is selective. Buyers still have standards.

But that also means the gap between quality aircraft and everything else has never been more consequential. When… if … the desirability threshold breaks and lesser aircraft start transacting at volume, that’s a different market entirely. We’re not there yet. But the direction is clear.

What the Data Is Actually Showing — Super-Midsize, Type by Type

Let me be specific. Because vague market commentary helps no one.

Bombardier Challenger 3500

Zero aircraft on the market. Zero sold in the last 30 days. Zero percent of fleet available.

Look at that again. All three numbers are zero.

And even that understates the reality. jetAVIVA has transacted the ONLY on-market Challenger 3500 deal 2026. Most of the deals have not appeared on JetNet until after the FAA paperwork was filed. Never hit a listing platform. They were identified, negotiated, and closed before most of the market knew they were in play.

The inventory chart tells the story clearly: from nearly 2% of the fleet available in late 2024, the Challenger 3500 has moved to zero. That curve doesn’t reverse overnight.

If you’re searching published databases and concluding there’s nothing available — you’re not seeing the market because I know of 3 off market opportunities, right now. You’re seeing the exhaust trail of transactions that already happened.

Gulfstream G280

Sixteen aircraft listed on the market (we know of 18). Three sold in the last 30 days. Average days on market: 169 – up 10 days from last period.

On the surface, 16 sounds like inventory. It isn’t. 11 of those are already pending!

Inventory levels sit at ~5% of the fleet. Pricing has climbed from roughly $14.3M in December 2025 to nearly $16M today. This is a meaningful move in five months. Pre-owned sales have been outpacing new listings consistently since late 2025. The gap between what appears available and what is actually available — meaning unencumbered, accessible, and actionable — is wide and getting wider.

The G280 is rapidly moving toward the same position as the Challenger 350 & 3500. The buyers who recognize that now are the ones who will close. The buyers who don’t will watch the listings thin out and wonder what happened.

Embraer Praetor 600

Seven aircraft on the market. Zero sold in the last 30 days. Average days on market: 57 — up 21 days from last period.

That could sound like buyer leverage. It isn’t — at least not in the way you’d expect.

Look closer. Inventory levels sat near zero as recently as February 2026 and have climbed sharply to almost 5% of fleet in just 60 days. Pricing swung from a high of nearly $24.75M in early 2026 down to $22.75M at the March trough, now recovering toward $23.5M. Pre-owned sales activity essentially stopped in April while new listings increased.

What you’re seeing is a market in recalibration – not collapse. Sellers who pushed price at the peak are now sitting. Buyers who expected that peak to hold are recalibrating expectations. The spread between ask and where deals actually close has widened.

For a buyer, this is the one super-midsize segment right now where patience has a limited payoff window. The inventory spike is real, but it won’t last, and the Praetor 600 remains one of the most capable transatlantic platforms in the cabin class. When pricing finds its floor, this market will tighten fast.

One caveat: U.S.-based, clean, well-maintained examples remain scarce within that seven. So scarce it is only 2! Not all inventory is equal. It never is.

Dassault Falcon 2000LXS

Four aircraft on market, with two pending — one of those off-market. One sold in the last 30 days. Average days on market: 110 — down 18 days from the prior period.

This is the outlier in the super-midsize conversation, and it deserves an honest read.

Inventory sits at ~3.3% of the 154-aircraft fleet. The sales-to-listing ratio has been even — March produced one new listing and one pre-owned sale, while April went quiet with no new listings and no closed transactions. Pricing has told a different story than the other platforms: a sharp climb from the low $23M range in December 2025 to a firm ceiling in the very high $27M range, where it has largely plateaued. The days on market have improved, but with zero transactions in April, that number needs context.

A pending off-market closing tells the real story: the aircraft closed approximately $1M under ask. That’s not a rounding error. That’s the market drawing a line.

So what’s happening?

The Falcon 2000LXS is a genuinely capable aircraft with intercontinental range, efficient engines, and exceptional runway performance. In the right hands, for the right mission, it’s a serious platform. But the market is telling you something right now: buyers in this segment are selective, and five available examples at the high $27M range with no movement last month means pricing conviction is getting tested.

This is by no means a broken aircraft. It’s a market finding its ceiling.

For a buyer with a defined transatlantic mission who has done their homework, there is negotiating room here that simply does not exist in the Challenger 3500 or G280 markets right now. The leverage has shifted, but only for buyers who know exactly what they’re looking for and can move when the right example surfaces.

For sellers, the data is a reality check. Two pending transactions out of five available shows life in the pipeline, but zero closed sales in April at asking prices firmly in the high $27M range means the market is watching, not moving. Position accordingly.

The Strategic Read Across All Four

The Challenger 3500 is gone. The G280 has 11 of 16 listings already pending — it’s going. The Praetor is recalibrating, but two actionable U.S. examples out of seven isn’t leverage — it’s a narrowing window. And the Falcon 2000LXS is the one segment where a prepared buyer holds real negotiating room right now — confirmed by a deal that just closed $1M under ask.

Four aircraft types. Four completely different market positions. One common thread: the published data is lagging behind every single one of them.

This is the market. Right now. In real time.

If You’re a Buyer

The playbook has changed. Fundamentally.

You cannot approach this market reactively and expect to win. By the time a quality super-midsize appears publicly, there is a meaningful probability it already has engaged parties. Some already have accepted offers.

The buyers closing deals right now share three things: pre-established broker relationships, defined parameters, and the ability to make decisions when something surfaces. Speed is a competitive advantage. Preparation is a competitive advantage.

Waiting is not a strategy. It’s a concession.

If You’re a Seller

You are sitting in one of the strongest seller positions this market has produced in years.

But, and this matters, only if you’re selling the right aircraft.

Clean airframe. Current maintenance. Enrolled programs. If that describes your aircraft, there is a qualified buyer for it right now. Possibly before it ever reaches a public listing.

If it doesn’t, you are about to find out exactly how selective this market still is.

The Bottom Line

The data will catch up eventually. I have been tracking it since 2012, and it always does.

By the time it does, the deals will already be done. The quality aircraft will already have new owners. And the buyers watching the listings will still be watching, wondering where the inventory went.

This is what being inside the market, not just observing it, actually looks like.

If you want to be in the room where it happens, you need someone who’s already in it – and here I am!