Mid-Year Market Update: Looking Ahead

As we hit the midpoint of 2025, it’s a good time to take stock of where we’ve been—and more importantly, where we’re going. Coming off a volatile election year and what felt like a sluggish market, we entered January with high expectations. November and December of 2024 were robust, and Q1 came out of the gate strong. We expected that momentum to carry forward.

And then came “Liberation Day.”

The unexpected announcement of reciprocal tariffs caught the market off guard, especially for internationally manufactured aircraft. What had been shaping up to be a stable, even brisk, Q2 turned into what we now refer to as the “tariff pause.” Buyers took a collective breath. Uncertainty reigned, and many transactions slowed—not necessarily due to actual logistical hurdles, but because the implications weren’t yet clear. And when buyers aren’t sure how to proceed, they often don’t.

That said, the story of Q2 is one of contrast. Activity ticked down most notably in the light jet segment, while larger cabin aircraft—typically owned by more affluent and globally savvy operators—seemed to proceed relatively unfazed. The unevenness was palpable. Add to that the long-anticipated return of immediate expensing (compliments of the “big beautiful bill”), and we found ourselves with a mixed bag of signals.

Now, as we look ahead, one thing is clear: the second half is already heating up. One of the strongest tailwinds we see shaping the second half is the return of 100% Bonus Depreciation. It’s already encouraging previously hesitant buyers to step off the sidelines, and we expect this to continue driving meaningful activity as we approach year-end.

In fact,  jetAVIVA is bringing 13 new listings to market in July alone, and these owners aren’t just selling—they’re stepping up. Many are transitioning into newer or larger aircraft, capitalizing on the new tax law to optimize their fleet strategy. While we anticipate an increase in available inventory, it’s likely to be paired with a wave of strategic upgrades as savvy owners leverage the new tax law to their advantage.

Still, a word of caution. The current administration has set new tariff rates slated to take effect August 1, though negotiations are ongoing. If you’re planning a transaction in the second half, make sure you’ve got an experienced customs broker on your team. It’s not optional—it’s essential.

And let’s not forget: this industry is still resource-constrained. Whether it’s parts, engines, or available pre-buy slots, those racing to close by year-end may find themselves tight on time. Our advice? Start sooner than you think you need to. But rest assured—if a December deal pops up, the most nimble firms (ours included) will find a way to get it done.