The Market Is Softening – Ben Dow
The Market Is Softening. The Best Airplanes Aren’t.
Why broad market narratives can be misleading, and why make/model expertise matters more heading into Q4
Spend enough time talking with aircraft buyers, sellers, and brokers right now and you’ll hear an interesting contradiction. On one hand, there’s a persistent narrative that inventory remains extremely constrained, values continue to rise, and buyers need to move quickly because there simply aren’t enough airplanes available. On the other hand, the broader market data tells a more complicated story. Asking prices have declined across several segments, transaction velocity has moderated, and inventory has recovered considerably from the extraordinary lows of the post-pandemic market. Perhaps most importantly, the aircraft sitting on the market aren’t necessarily the aircraft buyers are aggressively pursuing.
So which version is correct? In many ways, both are. The problem comes when we try to describe a market consisting of thousands of individual aircraft, hundreds of models, vastly different maintenance profiles, and decades of vintages with a single narrative. There isn’t one pre-owned aircraft market. As we enter the fourth quarter, understanding the market within the market may be more important than ever.
The Problem With the Broad Market Narrative
One of the narratives I continue to hear across the brokerage industry is relatively simple: inventory is tight and values are going up. That statement may be completely accurate for a particular make/model, or even for a very specific subset of aircraft within that model, but it isn’t universally true.
JETNET’s latest data illustrates the point. Approximately 1,766 business jets were available for sale monthly through July, representing roughly 6.6% of the operational fleet. That’s still tight compared with historical norms, but considerably different from the extreme scarcity buyers experienced during the post-pandemic market. More importantly, 74% of today’s for-sale inventory is 16 years old or older, while aircraft five years old or newer represent only 6% of available inventory. Overall inventory can therefore be relatively healthy compared with pandemic-era lows while inventory of a specific late-model, high-pedigree aircraft remains extraordinarily constrained.
That’s where broad market commentary can become misleading. A broker working across dozens of aircraft types may see a generally tight market. A specialist following one make/model every day may see 15 aircraft advertised for sale but know that only three truly compete with the aircraft being evaluated. Others may have upcoming maintenance, unrealistic asking prices, less desirable specifications, or have been quietly available for an extended period. Conversely, the next properly priced, U.S.-based aircraft with the right pedigree may receive immediate attention. The number of airplanes for sale isn’t the same thing as the number of airplanes buyers actually want to buy.
Inventory Is Only Half the Story
Consider what happens when a buyer opens a market report and sees 15 aircraft available within a particular make and model. Fifteen airplanes sounds like a substantial choice. Then we start peeling back the layers: Where are they located? What’s the maintenance status? Are the engines enrolled on a program? What major inspections are approaching? Does the aircraft have the right connectivity? What’s the cabin configuration? How complete are the records? Does it have damage history? How has it been operated and maintained?
Suddenly, 15 airplanes might become five, and five might become two. That’s the market within the market. There may be plenty of airplanes for sale. There aren’t necessarily plenty of the right airplanes for sale.
Not Every Aircraft Is Appreciating
The same caution applies to values. It’s tempting to look at constrained inventory within a particular market and conclude that values must therefore be increasing. Sometimes that’s true, but not always. JETNET’s July market data showed average asking prices continuing to correct year over year. Small jet asking prices were down 1.6%, medium jets were down 5.2%, and large jets were down 15.7%. By July, JETNET reported large jet asking prices had effectively returned to 2019 levels following the extraordinary appreciation of the pandemic-era market.
AMSTAT provides another interesting data point. During Q2 2026, heavy jet average asking prices declined sharply, down 34.6% year over year, while median transaction values actually increased 13%. At first glance, those numbers seem contradictory, but they illustrate how the composition of the market matters. Younger, more desirable aircraft can trade and support realized values while older or less desirable aircraft remain available longer and undergo asking price reductions.
In other words, the best aircraft can appreciate while the broader market softens. The reverse can also be true. A particular make/model can have very little inventory while an individual aircraft within that market loses value because of upcoming maintenance, engine exposure, equipment deficiencies, or an unrealistic asking price. Scarcity alone doesn’t determine value.
Two Airplanes. Two Completely Different Markets.
Aircraft have never been commodities, and today’s market makes treating them like commodities particularly risky. Take two large-cabin aircraft of the same model and similar vintage. One has comprehensive engine coverage, desirable connectivity, updated avionics, a preferred interior layout, excellent cosmetics, a clean pedigree, and recently completed major maintenance. The other is approaching a major inspection, has limited engine coverage, needs connectivity and cosmetic investment, and may have several million dollars of maintenance exposure on the horizon.
Technically, they’re comparable aircraft. Economically, they’re not even close. That’s especially important in the large-cabin Falcon, Gulfstream, and Bombardier markets, where maintenance position, engine programs, and major inspections can dramatically change the economics of ownership. It’s also why I caution clients against looking at average asking prices, or even average transaction prices, in isolation. The average doesn’t own the airplane you’re considering. The individual aircraft does. Its history, maintenance position, programs, equipment, and pedigree determine where it actually fits within the market.
Why Make/Model Specialization Matters
This is where I believe specialization becomes increasingly valuable. It’s relatively easy to know how many airplanes are advertised for sale. The harder question is knowing why each one is still for sale. A make/model specialist should know the individual aircraft, recent transactions, off-market opportunities, upcoming maintenance events, pricing history, and buyer activity within that market. More importantly, they should understand which aircraft actually establish value.
If ten aircraft are available but only three represent true substitutes for the aircraft being evaluated, using all ten equally in a valuation can produce the wrong answer. The same applies to interpreting inventory. Three aircraft for sale might represent an extraordinarily tight market in one model, while in another those same three aircraft may have been available for 18 months with little buyer interest. The number alone doesn’t provide the answer. Context does.
That distinction becomes particularly important when someone says, “Inventory is tight, so this airplane is worth more.” Maybe. But the better questions are: Inventory of what? Which aircraft are actually selling? At what values? How long are they taking to sell? And how does this specific aircraft compare with the ones buyers have actually chosen? Those questions tell us considerably more about an aircraft’s value than a fleet-wide inventory percentage.
Buyers Have Become More Selective
Current days-on-market data reinforces the point. JETNET reports average days on market at approximately 96 days. But aircraft five years old or newer are selling in roughly 53 days, while every age category 16 years and older is taking more than 100 days. That’s a significant divide, and I don’t view it as evidence that demand has disappeared. I view it as evidence that demand has become more selective.
Today’s buyer has something that was largely absent during the peak market of 2021 and 2022: patience. Buyers can evaluate alternatives, scrutinize maintenance exposure, and reject an airplane that doesn’t fit. But when an exceptional airplane enters a constrained make/model market, that patience may need to disappear quickly. We’ve seen situations where a buyer has tremendous negotiating leverage on one aircraft and almost none on another, despite the airplanes being the same make, model, and vintage. That’s not contradictory. That’s the market appropriately differentiating quality.
Q4 Could Magnify the Divide
Now add the fourth quarter. Year end has historically been one of the most active periods for aircraft transactions, and 100% bonus depreciation provides another potential catalyst for qualifying U.S. buyers in 2026. But I’m less interested in whether overall transaction volume increases than where that demand concentrates.
If motivated buyers enter the market over the next several months, they aren’t going to distribute themselves evenly across every aircraft available for sale. They’re going to gravitate toward the best ones: late-model aircraft, recently inspected aircraft, airplanes with comprehensive programs, and those with the right configuration, pedigree, and maintenance history. That can create an unusual Q4 environment. A market can appear to be softening while two buyers compete aggressively for the same aircraft. A buyer can negotiate hundreds of thousands, or millions, off one airplane while another sells close to asking price. A model can have rising inventory while its best examples continue to appreciate.
None of those scenarios contradict one another. They demonstrate why we need to stop talking about the pre-owned aircraft market as though every airplane participates in it equally.
Stop Buying the Headline
Heading into Q4, I believe buyers and sellers should be cautious of broad statements about the market, whether they’re bullish or bearish. “Inventory is tight.” “Values are rising.” “It’s a buyer’s market.” “It’s a seller’s market.” Those statements make good headlines. They don’t necessarily make good acquisition or disposition strategies.
The better approach is to understand the specific make/model, the individual aircraft competing within it, and the characteristics actually driving transactions. For buyers, that means knowing what a great airplane looks like before it becomes available. For sellers, it means understanding where your aircraft truly sits against its competition rather than pointing to a low inventory percentage and assuming scarcity guarantees a premium.
After more than 15 years in aircraft sales, I’ve learned that there is rarely one aircraft market. There are markets within markets. Heading into Q4 2026, that distinction may matter more than the headline numbers. Inventory remains below long-term historical norms, certain aircraft are genuinely difficult to find, and some of the best examples continue to command exceptional values. But that does not mean every make/model is inventory constrained, and it certainly doesn’t mean every aircraft is increasing in value.
The market is becoming more selective, not universally more expensive. Ultimately, the goal isn’t to buy or sell based on the narrative surrounding the broader market. It’s to understand the market for that airplane. Increasingly, that’s where specialization matters.
