In business aviation, timing is everything — and surprises are rarely welcome. Traditionally, the fourth quarter has been the busiest season for aircraft transactions, kicking off in October and peaking in December. This surge is typically driven by year-end tax strategies, internal accounting deadlines, and corporate budget adjustments. However, in recent years, a noticeable shift has occurred: the rush now begins earlier — sometimes in late August, early September, or even July. Adding to the pressure, aircraft deliveries increasingly need to be finalized by December 15th, not December 31st.

What’s Changing?  Several industry dynamics are contributing to this trend:

1. Supply Chain and Closing Timelines

Aircraft transactions today are taking more time than they did even five years ago, not less. Airplanes are getting bigger, not smaller.  Aircraft are getting more complex, not less.  OEMs are more intractable, not less.  Pre-purchase inspections have become the longest part of the process, as MROs work even harder to manage their own square footage while anticipating and accommodating the needs of the industry.  Adding in the effects of regulatory compliance checks, financing arrangements, and international registration logistics can stretch closing timelines by weeks — sometimes months. Buyers and brokers alike are adjusting by moving timelines up, starting what would have been “Q4 activity” earlier in Q3 to ensure deals close by December 31 – which actually means mid-December if tax flights are required and/or additional margin is needed. Missing the deadline due to supply chain or under performance can be disastrous.

2. Training

In the old days, and once the transaction was well underway, the team would eventually focus on calling a provider and scheduling initial training for the crew.  Those days are obviously long gone.  Although the backlog in training slots has eased somewhat, it’s largely dependent on aircraft type.  Want an initial in a Global XRS?  Easy.  Need two G650ER initials? Hard.  Instructor retention is better for the providers, but still an issue.  The use of contractors can solve some scheduling issues…until and unless the jet will be operated under FAR135.  Training issues could easily be considered the second longest pole in the tent.  

3. Tax Strategy Deadlines

Tax incentives — such as the recently reinstated bonus depreciation under U.S. tax code Section 168(k) — remain a powerful motivator for closing before year-end. But with increasing awareness of the complexity involved in qualifying for these benefits, more buyers are seeking early starts to avoid last-minute surprises. In addition, ownership structures are far more complex than ever.  It’s why brokers and advisors are now recommending clients begin purchase processes in Q3 to properly structure ownership and usage for compliance.

4. Competitive Market Dynamics

For the past few years, the inventory of quality pre-owned business jets has remained historically low. Certain market segments have seen a recent rise in inventory, but most Buyers have begun to realize they’re not the only ones shopping for the same top-tier, high serial number, low time, “Belle of the Ball” aircraft, and the fear of missing out drives earlier engagement. It’s become more common to see bidding wars and rapid offers on off-market, recently listed, and correctly priced jets — particularly by late Q3. Furthermore, Buyers have come to recognize that Sellers are loath to reduce pricing in the fourth quarter.  Instead, those Sellers bet on 4Q competition.

5. Globalization and Cross-Border Deals

With a growing number of cross-border aircraft transactions, coordination between multiple jurisdictions has made transaction timelines inherently more complex. Export certifications, tax clearance, and regulatory approvals can introduce weeks of delay. Now, tariffs have added uncertainty and increased the value of aircraft which don’t need import into, or export out of the United States.  Smart buyers are preempting some of these challenges by initiating their deals well before Q4 officially begins.

6. Broker Behavior and Market Psychology

Aircraft brokers, aware of these shifts, are also adjusting their calendars. Marketing campaigns, private showings, and client targeting are now launched in late summer. There’s a subtle but growing industry-wide understanding: if you wait until October to get serious, you may already be too late.  Personally, I have considered giving desk calendars as gifts…that end in August (kidding).  

What This Means for Buyers and Sellers

• Buyers who have year-end goals should engage brokers, advisors, lenders, and legal counsel earlier than in previous years — ideally by July, but absolutely no later than late August — to secure favorable terms and avoid a year-end bottleneck.
• Sellers benefit from listing earlier, too. Aircraft listed in late Q3 tend to garner more attention and benefit from urgency-driven interest without the pressure of rushed due diligence.  The pre-buy slots are snapped up by Sellers who engaged Buyers in August.  
• Experienced Brokers, advisors, and service providers begin to anticipate bandwidth requirements early to accommodate this earlier wave of activity, ensuring key personnel and capacity are in place ahead of the traditional Q4 crunch.
• A team consisting of an experienced Broker, powerful Aviation Counsel, and a capable lender prevents forcing Buyers and Sellers into decisions they shouldn’t make.   

Final Thoughts

The shift of the fourth quarter into the third isn’t just a scheduling change — it’s a reflection of a maturing, more competitive, and increasingly global business aircraft market. And with 100% Bonus Depreciation now being available again for the first time since 2022, the pressure on timelines will only increase. By recognizing and adapting to this evolution, buyers, sellers, and advisors can position themselves to succeed in an environment where timing is not just strategic — it’s everything.

Interested in buying or selling an aircraft before year-end? Contact Jim and our team at jetAVIVA for expert guidance tailored to your timeline and goals.