Spring 2017 Cessna Citation Markets Update

Cessna Citation Mustang

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Typical of the first quarter of the year, transaction levels were down with the Mustang market, quarter over quarter, with nine (9) pre-owned Mustangs trading hands, a reduction from sixteen (16) units in Q4 2016, and inventory levels seeing a slight rise over the same period. Overall time on market remains steady, with sales typically occurring within 4-6 months of being listed on the market, and Mustangs on the lower end of the price spectrum finding homes more quickly. In terms of factory new deliveries, Q1 saw two (2) new Mustangs delivered to retail customers, down one (1) unit from Q4 2016 and up one (1) from Q1 2016.

Mustang values continue to depreciate on par with other comparable models at an average rate of 3%/year. Assuming engine program enrolled, 2007-2009 models are selling in the $1.5M - $1.7M range, 2010-2012 models in the $1.8M - $1.95M range, 2013-2014 models in the $2.1M - $2.3M range, and 2015 and later in the mid/upper $2Ms.

Outlook: We expect that Q2 will make up for a slow Q1, with transaction levels predicted to be on par with 2016 and little change in the strong demand for what many consider one of the easiest to fly and best factory-supported single-pilot light jets available.

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Citation Mustang Values & Inventory Levels

Citation Mustang Average Value (2010 Year Model)
% of Fleet for Sale

Cessna Citation Mustang Spring 2017

Current For-Sale Inventory48
Total Fleet475
Percent of Fleet for Sale (Current)10.1%
Pre-Owned Transactions (Q1 2017)9
Average Days on Market*155
New Deliveries (Q1 2017)2

*For Aircraft Sold in Recent Quarter. Does not include “Off Market” sold aircraft.

Mustang Historic Pre-Owned Transactions

Mustang Inventory

Traffic Advisory System
2010 Cessna Citation 510 Mustang
SN 510-0318
New Paint included with Sale!
2008 Cessna Citation 510 Mustang
SN 510-0061
Full HF Radio Install!
2010 Cessna Citation 510 Mustang
SN 510-0339

Cessna Citation CJ/CJ1/CJ1+/M2

CJ
The “Straight-CJ”, aka CitationJet, market continues to be one of the most stable markets in the Citation fleet. Sales activity remained very strong in Q1 as the CJ market posted double digit sales for the fifth quarter in a row. Part of the reason for this consistency is the CJ’s popularity among first time jet buyers as the aircraft offer tremendous bang for the buck. The straight CJ also offers a lot of flexibility for WAAS and ADS-B upgrades on the cheap vs. integrated cockpit airplanes like CJ1 and up. CJ buyers can find a good airplane, enrolled on TAP with 3500 hours and decent Paint and Interior in the Low $1Ms. We are also continue to see more retrofitted G1000 CJs hitting the market. These aircraft are commanding sales prices in +/- mid $1Ms.

CJ1
After seeing inventory levels fall throughout the second half of 2016, CJ1 inventory began to rise again in Q1, inching closer and closer to 15% fleet availability. While this initial decline in inventory led to some price stabilization in Q4 2016 and Q1 2017, we may see prices begin to trend downward again if inventory continues to rise. Transactionally, the CJ1 market continues to perform in regular cadence with a total of seven (7) sales closing in Q1. The CJ1 remains popular thanks to its more modern avionics and additional weight-carrying capability over the CJ. The CJ1’s ProLine-21 integrated cockpit is also relatively flexible for WAAS and ADS-B upgrade options. Buyers should expect to pay Mid $1Ms for a nice CJ1 enrolled on an engine program depending on model year and hours.

CJ1+
The CJ1+ market saw a resurgence in Q1. While inventory continues to remain stable, hovering in the 8% range, sales activity increased to start the new year. With a total of 4 transactions in Q1, the CJ1+ market posted half of its 2016 total in just three months, and its best quarterly sales total in almost two years. This increase in sales activity led to a noticeable tightening of the market. Demand for The FADEC equipped CJ1+ remains strong and top notch CJ1+’s are becoming harder and harder to find. CJ1+ aircraft continue to trade in the Low to Mid $2M range.

M2
The pre-owned M2 market continues to evolve and mature as the youngest of the 525-series models. What began as a rare delivery position here, and the occasional like-brand-new aircraft there, turned the corner in Q1 and matured into a fully functioning, “normal” pre-owned market. With strong demand, regular sales activity, and most importantly, a broad spectrum of available inventory, the M2 market is being driven by standard supply/demand dynamics we see in most markets where model year, total time, program status and equipment all factor into an aircraft’s value and desirability. As new prices have not increased at all, this drives downward pressure on the pre-owned values so you can still get a great, relatively low time M2 for much less than new for the same airplane. Late model, low time aircraft can be found in the High to Mid-High $3Ms, while early model, higher time aircraft are now selling in the Mid-Low to Low $3Ms.

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Citation CJ Values & Inventory Levels

CJ Average Value (1997 Year Model)
% of Fleet for Sale

Citation CJ1 Values & Inventory Levels

CJ1 Average Value (2000 Year Model)
% of Fleet for Sale

Citation CJ1+ Values & Inventory Levels

CJ1+ Average Value (2006 Year Model)
% of Fleet for Sale

Citation M2 Values & Inventory Levels

M2 Average Value (2013 Year Model)
% of Fleet for Sale

Cessna Citation CJ/CJ1/CJ1+/M2 Spring 2017

 CJCJ1CJ1+M2
Current For-Sale Inventory432688
Total Fleet328195102146
Percent of Fleet for Sale (Current)13.1%13.3%7.8%5.5%
Pre-Owned Transactions (Q1 2017)11745
Average Days on Market*115186378140
New Deliveries (Q1 2017)---7

*For Aircraft Sold in Recent Quarter. Does not include “Off Market” sold aircraft.

CJ/CJ1/CJ1+/M2 Historic Pre-Owned Transactions

CJ/CJ1/CJ1+/M2 Inventory

G3000 Integrated Avionics Suite
2016 Cessna Citation 525 M2
SN 525-0903
Tamarack ATLAS Active Winglets
2005 Cessna Citation 525 CJ1+
SN 525-0604
ADS-B Out
2008 Cessna Citation 525 CJ1+
SN 525-0674
G1000 Equipped
1997 Cessna Citation 525 CJ
SN 525-0211
G1000 with Synthetic Vision Upgrade
1998 Cessna Citation 525 CJ
SN 525-0246
For Lease
2001 Cessna Citation 525 CJ1
SN 525-0427
Delivered with brand new paint!
1994 Cessna Citation 525 CJ
SN 525-0087

Cessna Citation CJ2/CJ2+

CJ2
CJ2 inventory continues to hover around the 8% fleet availability range which has kept values fairly stable. While sales activity slowed in Q1 with only 3 transactions closing, we anticipate an increase in sales activity in Q2 as demand from CJ2 buyers remains strong thanks to its hard-to-beat combination of performance, payload, and range relative to its price. Buyers can expect to pay Low-Mid to Mid $2Ms for a good aircraft and Mid-High $2Ms for a great one depending on model year, total time, number of screens (2 or 3 Tube EIFIS) and seating configuration (combination of belted lav and forward side facing seat is usually the most desirable).

CJ2+
After a difficult 2016, the CJ2+ market looked to rebound in Q1. Transactionally, the CJ2+ market was strong, outpacing the CJ2 market in sales for the third quarter in a row. Inventory started the year at its lowest level since 2015. Despite higher sales volume, inventory gradually increased throughout the quarter as new, less desirable listings hit the market. At the end of Q1, the CJ2+ market reached a point where most of the inexpensive, low-end, and reasonably priced higher-end options have all sold, without comparable aircraft being added to the market to replace them. There are still some really nice 2007-09 aircraft out there with +/- 2000 hours that offer good value in the mid $3Ms.

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Citation CJ2 Values & Inventory Levels

CJ2 Average Value (2004 Year Model)
% of Fleet for Sale

Citation CJ2+ Values & Inventory Levels

CJ2+ Average Value (2010 Year Model)
% of Fleet for Sale

Cessna Citation CJ2/CJ2+ Spring 2017

 CJ2CJ2+
Current For-Sale Inventory1919
Total Fleet237225
Percent of Fleet for Sale (Current)8.0%8.4%
Average Days on Market*130319
Pre-Owned Transactions (Q1 2017)37

*For Aircraft Sold in Recent Quarter. Does not include “Off Market” sold aircraft.

CJ2/CJ2+ Historic Pre-Owned Transactions

CJ2/CJ2+ Inventory

2008 Cessna Citation 525B CJ3
SN 525B-0292

Cessna Citation CJ3/CJ3+

CJ3
The CJ3 market saw a stabilizing trend take place in Q1 after a wild and mostly unpredictable 2016. Inventory levels have finally receded from the highs we saw in 2016 and currently trending downward toward the 7% and under fleet availability mark we saw for much of 2014 and 2015. While demand for the CJ3 continues to be very strong, the market still favors buyers, but not to the extent we saw in 2016. Declining inventory and strong demand has led prices to stabilize at more rational levels. Buyers can expect to pay prices in the $4M+ range for a mid-range CJ3, depending on model year, total time, programs and equipment. The CJ3 market is also seeing modifications like ProLine Fusion cockpit and Tamarack winglets begin to gain traction. These modifications will directly affect residual values in the current market and inevitably increase an aircraft’s desirability.

CJ3+
The CJ3+ fleet continues to grow as owners take delivery of new aircraft from the factory. The total CJ3+ fleet now stands at 62 aircraft in operation. On the pre-owned side, the CJ3+ market is still in its infancy, offering only limited opportunity for interested buyers to move up. When an aircraft does hit the market, it does not last long and can set its own market value / sale price. There is currently one (1) CJ3+ for sale. Only three (3) aircraft have traded hands in the pre-owned market to date and none in Q1 of this year. Needless to say, it is a very tight market. Natural market dynamics are unlikely to come into play until more units hit the pre-owned market.

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Citation CJ3 Values & Inventory Levels

CJ3 Average Value (2009 Year Model)
% of Fleet for Sale

Cessna Citation CJ3 Spring 2017

 CJ3CJ3+
Current For-Sale Inventory321
Total Fleet41262
Percent of Fleet for Sale (Current)7.8%1.6%
Pre-Owned Transactions (Q1 2017)120
Average Days on Market*271-
New Deliveries (Q1 2017)-2

*For Aircraft Sold in Recent Quarter. Does not include “Off Market” sold aircraft.

CJ3/CJ3+ Historic Pre-Owned Transactions

CJ3/CJ3+ Inventory

2008 Cessna Citation 525B CJ3
SN 525B-0292

Cessna Citation CJ4

The CJ4 market hit a major speed bump in 2016 as inventory spiked and values took a nose dive. Q1 offered some signs of hope, however, as the bleeding slowed. Could we be on the cusp of a turn around? While values have continued to fall and inventory has continued to rise, both are doing so at a much more gradual pace than before. On the flip side, the CJ4 market is seeing a noticeable increase in interest from prospective buyers as we head into the Summer months. There were a total of four (4) transactions in Q1 as inventory slowly rose toward 9% fleet availability. If we see a slight increase in sales activity and inventory is able to crest and begin to fall, the market may begin to make a serious push for a full rebound. Buyers can currently purchase most CJ4s in the Mid $5M to Low $6M range. If you are considering selling and realistic on price now is a great time to do so, as you can capitalize on the surge in demand the CJ4 market is experiencing.

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Citation CJ4 Values & Inventory Levels

CJ4 Average Value (2011 Year Model)
% of Fleet for Sale

Cessna Citation CJ4 Spring 2017

Current For-Sale Inventory21
Total Fleet238
Percent of Fleet for Sale (Current)8.8%
Pre-Owned Transactions (Q1 2017)4
Average Days on Market*163
New Deliveries (Q1 2017)5

*For Aircraft Sold in Recent Quarter. Does not include “Off Market” sold aircraft.

CJ4 Historic Pre-Owned Transactions

CJ4 Inventory

Like New Condition | Factory Warranty Remaining
2015 Cessna Citation 525C CJ4
SN 525C-0176
Immediate Availability
2012 Cessna Citation 525C CJ4
SN 525C-0107

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