
2025 Market Forecast
Date
January 20, 2025Author
Emily DeatonOne year ago, many wondered how the markets would fare heading into a volatile election season. But a data point shared around mid-2024 put our minds at ease: historically, election years’ sales volumes align closely with those of the preceding and succeeding years. While December data is still being finalized, preliminary reports suggest that pre-owned transactions in 2024 will likely show a year-over-year change within a single-digit percentage range, effectively indicating a stable market compared to 2023. Optimism and activity have increased post-election, and if market trends continue, this signals another promising year for the business aviation market.
There are a few variables on the board worth keeping an eye on. There’s buzzing chatter about a potential return of 100% Bonus Depreciation. While this would undoubtedly be a boon to the industry, the timing and scope of its impact remain uncertain. Additionally, December’s strong jobs report raised some concerns about inflation, while recent CPI and PPI data pointed to easing price pressures but left the future of interest rates uncertain. While rate adjustments remain on the table, they are unlikely to significantly influence deal behavior this year.
Looking more closely at the pre-owned business jet market, it remains robust. Inventory levels rose consistently throughout 2024 but generally stayed below 10% of the fleet for sale. High-pedigree aircraft continue to trade quickly, and pricing—while steadily normalizing to standard depreciation cycles—remains strong for desirable models.
December saw nearly double the number of closings compared to preceding months, with some deals still finalizing as we speak. Was this a typical year-end rush, or did pent-up demand unlock post-election? The first quarter of 2025 will likely provide the answer. At jetAVIVA, we’re off to a roaring start. Our forecast for the first quarter is on pace to be the best in my tenure with the firm, thanks largely to business initiated after November 5th.
So, what can buyers and sellers expect in 2025? More of the same, in the best way possible. Market dynamics will likely mirror those of the past two years: well-marketed and properly positioned aircraft will move quickly, while discerning buyers, with the right guidance, will have good options to choose from and can find great opportunities. Activity levels remain steady as we enter the new year, making this a great time to engage in the market.
As we dive into 2025, it’s hard not to reflect on the journey that brought us here. With nearly 20 years of experience and over one thousand transactions under our belts, jetAVIVA remains steadfast in its commitment to lead the business aviation market with unparalleled expertise.
We remain immensely grateful to our clients, whose trust and loyalty fuel our success year after year, and we’re equally thrilled to continue expanding our reach, welcoming new business, and deepening partnerships with our industry friends. Together, we’re shaping the future of business aviation.