Spring 2017 Embraer 100 & 300 Markets Update

Embraer Phenom 100

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For the third year in a row, Phenom 100 activity exceeded the previous year’s Q1 numbers. Pricing has not yet stabilized, though, as aircraft continue to come to market faster than they are sold. At the end of December, there were 32 aircraft for sale, representing approximately 10% of the fleet, and today the number has risen to 40+, or nearly 13% of the fleet. The majority of these are 2009/2010 aircraft. Many are coming from Brazil as a result of the expiration of a local subsidized financing program that swelled deliveries during those years. We are seeing these aircraft that are average time, on engine programs with no damage history hover around the $2M mark. Higher time, non-program aircraft have dipped below that mark.

There are two areas where we’ve seen upticks in this market. Airplanes with side facing seats and belted lavatories and Phenom 100Es are stable in the upper $2Ms and lower $3M range. Customers like the interior improvements that Embraer implemented in 2014 and are willing to pay more for them.

As we mentioned in the last report, deliveries for the Phenom 100 EV will begin in 2017 and several large orders have already been placed, making availability scarce. This is a positive for the 100E market as prices for the 100 EV are staying firm.

Outlook: The market looks to remain active on both the early and later year models. Attractive pricing is the main driver for the early models and the desire for a much improved interior is helping the 100E market hold pricing.

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Phenom 100 Average Value & Inventory Levels

Phenom 100 Average Value (2010 Year Model)
% of Fleet for Sale

Embraer Phenom 100 Spring 2017

Current For-Sale Inventory43
Total Fleet337
Percent of Fleet for Sale (Current)12.8%
Pre-Owned Transactions (Q1 2017)6
Average Days on Market*313
New Deliveries (Q1 2017)0

*For Aircraft Sold in Recent Quarter. Does not include “Off Market” sold aircraft.

Embraer Phenom 300

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The pre-owned market size remains unchanged from our last report with 20 Phenom 300s listed for sale, or a scarce 5.1% of the operating fleet. That does not mean there were no transactions as several have changed hands. There is, however, a pricing dynamic playing out in the P300 market worthy of attention. Last quarter we noted that pricing had dropped considerably even with only 5% of the fleet for sale. That trend seems to be reversing; owners have been holding prices while buyers expecting ever-dropping values have not been able to get the deals that they saw in the late fall of last year.

For the last several quarters, the highest activity has been in the low-time, highly-optioned, like-new market. 2017 has seen activity shift to earlier models as pricing has dropped below $6MM and even below $5MM for higher time P300s.

Outlook: Don’t expect activity to remain slow if the US economy holds up. There is heavy demand in this market; as prices and buyer expectations align there will be considerable activity.

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Phenom 300 Average Value & Inventory Levels

Phenom 300 Average Value (2011 Year Model)
% of Fleet for Sale

Embraer Phenom 300 Spring 2017

Current For-Sale Inventory20
Total Fleet389
Percent of Fleet for Sale (Current)5.1%
Pre-Owned Transactions (Q1 2017)4
Average Days on Market*158
New Deliveries (Q1 2017)5

*For Aircraft Sold in Recent Quarter. Does not include “Off Market” sold aircraft.

Embraer Phenom 100 & 300 Historic Pre-Owned Transactions

Phenom 100 & 300 Inventory

Garmin G3000
2014 Embraer Phenom 300
SN 50500228
Low Time & Garmin G3000
2014 Embraer Phenom 300
SN 50500217
2011 Embraer Phenom 300
SN 50500053

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